Heat of the fourth weekend of July; Sunday rain chance update
It will be a very hot July 4th holiday weekend.
Our average high temperature in the Twin Cities is 83 degrees at this time of year. Highs for the metro area will hit low in the mid-90s on Saturday. Highs will be in the 90s across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Saturday afternoon:
High temperatures hit the 90s again on Sunday in most areas, with a few 80s along the north shore of Lake Superior:
Sunday dew points will be in the sticky 60s:
Returning to high temperatures, Monday’s highs recede into the ’80s across much of northern Minnesota, with’ 90s elsewhere:
Risk of rain?
Even though it is a holiday weekend, some people are probably hoping for a little rain. That’s because 82% of Minnesota is currently in a drought, according to the US Drought Monitor:
Some places will see rain before the end of this holiday weekend. Northwest and north-central Minnesota will have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and early Sunday. This risk of rain expands to include roughly the northern half of Minnesota on Sunday afternoon, then the risk of rain spreads to the rest of Minnesota as well as western Wisconsin on Sunday evening and overnight Sunday. evening.
The Twin Cities metro area could experience a downpour or thunderstorm late Sunday afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday evening and overnight. The far south of Minnesota has the best chance of having a downpour or thunderstorm on Monday.
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and Western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can see updated weather information on the MPR News Live Weather Blog.
Fire Danger Update
The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources reminds us that fire danger is currently high in many areas:
The Minnesota DNR posts information on fire hazard and combustion restrictions here.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Hurricane Elsa, which will affect Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba this weekend and parts of Florida early next week. The National Hurricane Center published this forecast track for Elsa, along with the cone of uncertainty for that track:
Here’s the Friday afternoon update on Elsa:
BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri 02 Jul 2021 … ELSA CROSSING THE EASTERN CARABES SEA … … HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE EAST FROM CUBA … SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST … 2100 UTC … INFORMATION ——————————- ———– —– LOCATION … 14.2N 63.7W APPROXIMATELY 505 MI … 815 KM SE OF SAINT-DOMINGUE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 180 MI … 290 KM WEST OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS … 85 MPH … 140 KM / H CURRENT MOVEMENT … W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH … 48 KM / H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE … 991 MB … 29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS NOTICE: The government of Jamaica has issued a hurricane warning for Jamaica. The government of Cuba has issued a hurricane watch for the provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. The Barbados Weather Service has interrupted the tropical storm warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF EFFECTIVE WATCHES AND WARNINGS: A hurricane warning is in effect for … * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern part of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A tropical storm warning is in effect for … * Saint Vincent and the Grenadines * Saint Lucia * Martinique * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for … * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for … * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman Hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the ave area roasting. Preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere in the warning area. Hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba and the Cayman Islands are expected to monitor Elsa’s progress. Additional watches and warnings will likely be needed tonight. For information on storms specific to your area, please monitor the products issued by your national weather service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ——————— At 500 h AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.2 north and longitude 63.7 west. Elsa is moving west at nearly 30 mph (48 km / h), and that movement is expected to continue through Saturday. A west-northwest movement with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Saturday evening and Sunday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday evening or Monday. On the planned track, Elsa will cross the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday evening. By Sunday, Elsa is expected to move near Jamaica and parts of eastern Cuba, and near parts of central and western Cuba on Sunday evening and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km / h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to start on Saturday evening or Sunday as Elsa passes near or over the Greater Antilles. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). LAND HAZARDS ——————— Key messages for Elsa can be found in the tropical cyclone discussion under the heading AWIPS MIATCDAT5, l ‘OMM header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning Zone in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane alert zone in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by Saturday evening. Hurricane conditions are expected in Jamaica on Saturday evening or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tidal levels by as much as the following amounts in overland flow areas in hurricane watch and warning areas … South Coast of Cuba … 4 to 6 feet South Coast of Hispaniola … 2 to 4 feet Jamaica … 1 to 3 feet RAIN: Elsa is expected to produce total precipitation of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Leeward and Southern Islands, including Barbados. This rain can lead to isolated flash floods and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, precipitation of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today through Saturday. This rain can result in isolated flash floods and minor flooding of the river, as well as potential mudslides. In parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible from Saturday to Sunday. This rain can lead to scattered flash floods and mudslides. Early next week, Elsa is expected to impact parts of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This precipitation can lead to flash floods and heavy mudslides. SURF: The swell generated by Elsa will propagate westward across the Caribbean Sea over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surfing and tearing conditions. Please consult the products of your local weather office.
The National Hurricane Center publishes updated tropical advisories every three hours or so.
You can hear my weather updates live on MPR News at 7:35 am, 9:35 am and 4:39 pm every Saturday and Sunday.
You make MPR News possible. Individual donations are the source of the clarity of our reporters’ coverage across the state, the stories that connect us, and the conversations that offer insight. Help ensure that MPR remains a resource that brings Minnesotans together.
Make a donation today. A donation of $ 17 makes a difference.